Will New Glenn reach or exceed orbit before Starship?
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resolved Jan 16
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YES

Vehicle has to make at least one full orbit before deorbiting. Deliberate suborbital flights, even if they had the capability to go orbital (like the last Starship flight) don't count.

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New Glenn has reached orbit! Congrats to the Blue Origin team! Resolving to "Yes"

https://x.com/blueorigin/status/1879814598032822592

New Glenn has reached orbit!

Also assuming launching a payload into LEO doesn't count. Has to be the reusable bit

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Which reusable part of New Glenn will reach orbit? I believe the reusable parts will all be suborbital.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Why? All it says is that the orbital part has to deorbit, not that it has to land. As Erik mentioned, NG does not (currently) have a reusable part that reaches orbit.

@creator Will a direct interplanetary trajectory (for the EscaPADE launch) also count as orbit?

@dp9000 Ah, that's an interesting wrinkle - I wasn't aware that New Glenn wasn't shooting for orbit with their first mission. The spirit of the question is intended to be "which of these two programs will hit a common and easily comparable performance milestone first" and I think successfully achieving an interplanetary trajectory would be exceeding the requirements of achieving Earth orbit. I'm going to say yes here and change the question to "reach or exceed orbit" to account for this.

Good question!