Which models will be visible on the ChatGPT default model picker on Mar 29, 2025?
Mini
12
Ṁ275
Mar 30
80%
o3-mini
78%
o1
61%
a model starting with "GPT-4." (note the .)
56%
GPT-4o
24%
o1-mini
14%
o3-preview
11%
a model starting with "GPT-5"
10%
o3

I'll use the model picker as it looks like on March 29, 2025 (Eastern time) from a new, empty chat. Different models will roll out to different people at different times, so what I see will count. I won't bet on this question.

Here's what the current model picker looks like:

Clarifications:

  • Models hidden behind "More models" do not count

  • Generally, model names need to match up to case, punctuation, and spacing. So o3-preview doesn't count for o3, but O3 or o-3 would. But I will remove any parts that don't qualify the foundation model, for instance, o3 with canvas will count for o3.

This is the successor to https://manifold.markets/TotalVerb/which-models-will-be-visible-on-the.

  • Update 2024-23-12 (PST): Market will be resolved based on models visible to a ChatGPT Plus subscription. (AI summary of creator comment)

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Which subscription do you have, ChatGPT Plus or Pro?

@ahalekelly I have ChatGPT Plus