Who will be the President of the United States of America at some point in their life?
➕
Plus
363
Ṁ120k
9999
35%
J. D. Vance
22%
Gavin Newsom
15%
Josh Shapiro
15%
J. B. Pritzker
15%
Pete Buttigieg
14%
Gretchen Whitmer
14%
Marco Rubio
12%
Donald Trump Jr.
11%
Jon Ossoff
10%
Josh Hawley
10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
9%
Glenn Youngkin
8%
Elise Stefanik
7%
Wes Moore
7%
Mark Kelly
7%
Andy Beshear
7%
Nikki Haley
7%
Tim Walz
6%
Eric Swalwell
6%
Mark Cuban

This is a long term market intended for people to be able to see at a glance people who might have high future political potential.

An answer resolves YES upon their presidential inauguration.

Resolves NO upon their death if they have not become president.

I may edit or N/A added answers for any reason, e.g. duplicates, ambiguity, insufficient fame for coverage of death, inapplicability, inappropriateness, etc.

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I've N/A'd two options, "Me" for ambiguity and insufficient fame to be able to resolve since there will be no way to verify death, and "Krantz" for not being alive and therefore not having a coherent "NO" criterion in this market

@Tripping haha this me seeing if I can extract money from the market by selling immedietly (bur I could not sell immedietly). Sorry for polluting your market.

@Krantz For this to resolve yes, society would have to recognize that: (1) constitutions, in the form of KRANTZ, are actually artificially intelligent, (2) we could use a general decentralized constitution, in the form of KRANTZ, to control the behavior of an intelligent agent, (3) we could elect that decentralized artificially intelligent system to lead our country, and (4) we formally elect it to do so.

Donald Trump Jr.
opened a Ṁ100 Donald Trump Jr. NO at 21% order

@jks he's inhereting a lot from his dad but definitely not his juice

@Marnix I’m not buying YES but I could see a world with Sr as his VP so Jr could be essentially an empty suit or step down immediately to enable additional Trump Sr terms.

@JasonQ Honestly I think even if they went this route they'd need someone with WAY more juice than what Jr. can bring

@Marnix Pence didn’t IMO

someone add mark cuban

bought Ṁ1 Answer #QALSC9nsqg YES

There are two Tulsi Gabbard entries, with different probabilities by an order of magnitude. @Tripping should one be N/A'd?

yeah I did notice that. I'll N/A the newest one, but if there wasn't an answer cap I would have been okay with having a duplicate honestly

bought Ṁ10 Answer #adcbcfed6de4 YES

He is on the record saying he aspires to be president.

@BTE but his eyes too readily betray the emptiness of his soul!

@jim Isn’t that like a prerequisite to being president? The soulless bit?

@jim

Somehow it all reminds me of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde

Josh Shapiro

Is this meant to be Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro?

@Kraalnaxx What the heck, yes

How did no-one notice before now

@Tripping I must have read over that name dozens of times without noticing, spooky

Someone should open a market on whether at least one of these 100 people will become president, I am curious to find out what the overall percentage would be.

@Emanuele98 multi choice version:

Desantis being the same as Deval Patrick is mental

@Riley12 you can trade if you think it's out of whack

bought Ṁ20 Answer #ada504576bac YES

You think that's not out of whack? 😂

I did