Manifold Plays RPS ○ Will Manifold defeat Tumbles using Futarchy? (Ṁ10k prize*)
22
Ṁ7274
Aug 19
45%
chance

🪨📄✂️Manifold vs Tumbles, in a Rock Paper Scissors showdown!🪨📄✂️

One round per day, with each round resolving at 4:20pm PST

Best of Seven (first to win four rounds is victorious)

Tumbles is allowed to bet NO on this market, but can't sell, and can't bet YES

Current Score:

Manifold: 3

Tumbles: 2

(Detailed rules can be found in the description of any round's decision market)

At the end of the contest, whichever user profits the most shall be crowned the

🏆Rock Paper Scissors Mastermind🏆

Whoever is crowned will get to allocate Ṁ10,000 to a Tumbles Financial Complex creditor of their choosing! 🏆

🔎Check out this tag to find relevant markets🔍

(note that the leaderboard tab may not accurately display who is winning, since it excludes unranked markets)

In particular, take a look at Manifold Plays RPS ○ Prop Bets‌

What is Futarchy?

Futarchy is a system for making decisions as a group invented by Robin Hanson. To make Futarchy work, you need an agreed upon goal (in this case, winning RPS), and you need a conditional prediction market called a 'decision market' for each option the group could choose to try and achieve that goal (in this case, choosing rock or paper or scissors). Each decision market is predicting the same thing (in this case, "will Manifold defeat Tumbles"), but each of them resolves N/A if their corresponding action is not taken. So once the decision is made, only one of the decision markets remains, the one corresponding to the option that is predicted to have the best chance of leading to success.

More about Futarchy

#Futarchy
#Manifold Futarchy
#Manifold Plays RPS
#Rock Paper Scissors
#Contests
#Unranked
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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opened a Ṁ69 NO at 45% order

Round 9 Result:

🏆Tumbles chooses✂️scissors✂️
💀Manifold chooses📄paper📄

History:
✂️📄✂️✂️📄🪨🪨🪨📄✂️
📄✂️✂️🪨🪨🪨🪨📄📄📄

I'm in a rush at the moment will set up next round later. Considering doubling the time decision markets are open as well, now that we are in sudden death

@Orangey let's goooooooo

Round 9 Result:

○Tumbles chooses📄paper📄
○Manifold chooses📄paper📄

History:
✂️📄✂️✂️📄🪨🪨🪨📄
📄✂️✂️🪨🪨🪨🪨📄📄

Round 9 Result:

○Tumbles chooses📄paper📄
○Manifold chooses📄paper📄

Round 8 Result:

💀Tumbles chooses 🪨rock🪨
🏆Manifold chooses 📄paper📄

reposted

Evan locking in the 50k mana gigachad position lmao

I'm losing track of whether @Robincvgr or @evan (or myself) is currently in the lead to get the most profit. I think it's pretty close now

mfw the futarchy morphs into whalebait

@Orangey I mean that's just an inevitability of low-volume futarchy

it's inevitable that the richest participant chooses in low-volume futarchy. it's not inevitable that the futarchy is whalebait!

Round 7 Result:

○Tumbles chooses 🪨rock🪨
○Manifold chooses 🪨rock🪨

Round 6 Result:

○Tumbles chooses 🪨rock🪨
○Manifold chooses 🪨rock🪨

Round 5 Result:

🏆Tumbles chooses 📄paper📄
💀Manifold chooses 🪨rock🪨

Round 4 Result:

💀Tumbles chooses ✂️scissors✂️
🏆Manifold chooses 🪨rock🪨

@Tumbles how did you create a market with negative mana in your balance?

@Henry38hw Tumbles's account has a special case, it's not normally possible. He's allowed to make a few basic markets per day IIRC

@Robincvgr deserved

@bens Yeah, "beloved user with an unusable account" is a very unusual circumstance and warrants little QOL exceptions like this

Round 3 Result:

○Tumbles chooses ✂scissors✂️
○Manifold chooses ✂scissors✂️

Round 2 Result:

💀Tumbles chooses 📄paper📄
🏆Manifold chooses ✂scissors✂️

Round 1 Result:

🏆Tumbles chooses ✂️scissors✂️
💀Manifold chooses 📄paper📄

reposted

I present a Futarchy experiment via Manifold:

🪨📄✂️ Manifold Plays RPS vs Tumbles 🪨📄✂️

Featuring actual futarchy mechanics and a prop bet market


/Tumbles/will-manifold-defeat-tumbles-using
/Tumbles/manifold-plays-rps-prop-bets

I put limit orders on the round 1 market that expire at midnight

Comment hidden

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