Note: I have another market about NYT headlines with significantly different resolution criteria and definitions of terms. Please don't get them mixed up!

Just an experiment - I'm curious how well Manifold will be able to predict the cover page headline of the November 6, 2024 print edition of the NYT. I think this is a cute way of predicting lots of election dynamics at once, mixed in with predicting journalistic behavior/response to those dynamics.

The resolution criteria is super fuzzy - basically, I'm going to resolve to "YES" the answer in this market which most closely resembles the actual headline. This is mostly subjective, but things I'll be looking for include total matching words, sentence structure, meaning of the sentence (most important), detail in the sentence (more matching detail will beat less, extraneous missing detail will count against the answer), etc.

By headline I mean roughly the largest bold text or equivalent on the front page (the NYT often has subheadings in smaller bold text - that won't be included for the purpose of this market). According to these criteria, in 2008, the headline would have been "Obama." Even if the headline is totally out of left field (e.g. "election delayed due to Godzilla attack") I'll still try to resolve to the closest matching headline, despite none really fitting the bill. "Other" will not resolve yes. If somehow there is no headline or no print edition released, everything will resolve N/A.