Will the Israeli Defense Forces withdraw from the buffer zone with Syria, returning to its prior position, by the end of 2026?

Only IDF troops will be considered to be IDF presence; if the military of an allied entity holds the territory, this can still resolve Yes. Intention is not sufficient, only actual withdrawal counts. Even if the boundaries of the buffer zone are altered by mutual agreement, only the boundaries as they existed prior will be considered to define "the buffer zone" for purposes of this market. If there is a partial withdrawal but some presence remains there, this will resolve No.

I will not bet on this market.