Will there be a significant decrease in nuclear weapons globally by 2040? | Manifold

Will there be a significant decrease in nuclear weapons globally by 2040?

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Ṁ85

2040

16%

chance

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1W

1M

ALL

I'll define "significant" as a >25% reduction from January 2024 levels. For sources I'll use the median estimate from a variety of credible sources.

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Does this apply only to like defusing the bomb and stuff, or does it also apply to, you know, the other way to decrease the arsenals? With a big kaboom?

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