What will be the main product of the first $1T AI company
What will be the main product of the first $1T AI company
Mini
36
Ṁ986
2040
32%
Assistant
25%
Media Generation
20%
Other
10%
Search
7%
Coding
1.8%
Weapons
1.7%
Synthetic biology

It's plausible we get some very powerful AI systems that become more AGI-like in the near future, but what problems will people leverage them against successfully?

No hard resolution date, $1T nominal dollars (no inflation adjustment)

If answers overlap, I will resolve in favor of the multiple answers, giving more weight to more specific answers. I will not count a company that develops AGI and just sells it to other people who then apply it as being an answer (so if OpenAI in their current form were to hit $1T I don't think I'd count GPT-3). Has to actually be applied AI.

If you don't believe that much more powerful AI is coming, this market should still resolve eventually just because of inflation.

#AI
#Ancient Markets
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
8 Comments
32 Holders
125 Trades


Sort by:
2y

By "coding" I mean something like: company develops very good AI coder. Other companies pay to have the AI write their software for them, instead of hiring their own software team.

2y

@BTE Weapons development? AI manned weapons?

2y

@MartinRandall Please send me the pitchdeck for this

2y

What if, for instance, Google develops and uses AI internally and the total value add of AI across all their services is 1T but no particular product is worth that much? e.g. they get 500B using AI for better search and 100B using AI for better ad targeting and 50B from using AI to write better faster software etc.

2y

@vluzko Outside the scope of the question

2y

@VivaLaPanda Meaning you would are not counting Google as an AI company in that scenario, right?

2y

@vluzko Yes. You could also rephrase the prediction as "what will the first $1T AI product be" but valuing individual products is hard.

2y

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions