Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
Will Artificial Intelligence solve a Millennium Prize Problem before 2035?
Mini
61
Ṁ6575
2035
61%
chance

The Millennium Prize Problems are well-known complex mathematical problems selected by the Clay Mathematics Institute in 2000. The Clay Institute has pledged a US$1 million prize for the first correct solution to each problem.

The AI system must independently solve the Millennium Prize Problem without any human assistance during the solution process. Humans can only set up the AI architecture and train it on publicly available knowledge.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money


Sort by:
6mo

I think the problems will be solved with human intervention before we'll get to AI that can solve everything by itself

bought Ṁ11 YES3mo

@jerkyenox all of them?

6mo

What if AI clearly played a major role in solving the problem but the prize goes to a human who created or used the AI? How would this market resolve?

6mo

@SteveMichaels The AI would need to solve the problem by itself for the question to resolve as “Yes”. A human cannot provide any part of the solution.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.