Will the US have an economic depression before January 2030?
14
Ṁ747
2031
29%
chance

Resolution Criteria:

The market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point during the specified period, the U.S. economy meets both of the following conditions:

1. Duration and Depth of Economic Decline:

The U.S. experiences a continuous period of economic downturn lasting at least 24 months, during which there is a cumulative decline in real GDP of 10% or more.

2. Unemployment Rate:

The national unemployment rate reaches 15% or higher for six consecutive months.

Data Sources:

  • GDP data will be sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).

  • Unemployment data will be sourced from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS).

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