Some more ideas for future questions:

• Daytrading stocks

• Playing real-money online poker for more than 10 hours a week

• Using a real-money prediction market for more than 10 hours a week

How do you resolve if in the poll, Yes has exactly the same number of votes as No and Unsure combined?

@yetforever A tie is not a majority so it would resolve NO

@ZacParker Might be worth updating the description to say 'If "No" and "Unsure" combine to a number greater than or equal'

@yetforever Fair point!

Next clutch of polls - now only two weeks until close.

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-daytrading

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-running-or

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-writing-nsf

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-writing-fan

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-having-a-pr

Can we get some more no or unsure votes on 'reaction content'? only need 3 more, and it does not meet the resolution criteria! "Red flag = a warning of danger", see ppl who changed their vote below. Reaction youtubers aren't dangerous. It's just a job.

@TonyPepperoni How is creating reaction content a "red flag" for general problematic behavior? It's just a career? Reaction videos aren't high quality as far as youtube videos go but, like, why would someone who creates one be any more likely to engage in other negative behaviors than, say, someone who does sales or accounting? The market isn't about if reaction videos are bad

Like, can any YES voters explain why it fits the concept of 'red flag' in the description? Should I, for instance, be hesitant to be hang out with a reaction video creator?

Like, I get we don't like reaction videos, but I don't like ads either, that doesn't mean I think working in the ad industry is a red flag.

I'll admit, I hadn't read the definition of red flag before voting on that one, so I might not be the best advocate for the YES voters.

I was thinking of red flags in the sense of "people I'd want to avoid". The act of making low effort YouTube videos isn't bad, but I think it's a strong signal that their personality and values will conflict with my own. This makes it a strong negative indicator for me personally, but people with more similar values or a wider tolerance of them probably wouldn't have any issues.

With the actual red flag definition, I'd vote unsure, but still leaning a tiny bit YES since "behaviors that are problematic" covers a lot. I think that if the another person has a vastly different utility function from myself, that would make it hard to cooperate and could lead to problems between us.

How could this be a "red flag" but twitter not be? Some people just use facebook as their social media and their friends do too. That's a like 1.4 hours per day.

Reminder for when polls begin to resolve. "Yes" must beat out "No" and "Unsure" combined in order to resolve YES. If "No" + "Unsure" combined beat or tie "Yes" then I will resolve NO. It looks like a couple might end up being very close.

removed "Add responses" from the title, as it's no longer possible

note: we should add an automatic tag that displays this!

tribolympics

First clutch of polls:

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-promoting-an-nft-on

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-creating-conspiracy

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-having-a-truth-soci

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-promoting-a-cryptoc

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-someone-describing

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-considering-runningoperating

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-being-a-member-of-m

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-having-an-account-o

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-having-an-anime-pro

https://manifold.markets/ZacParker/do-you-consider-having-a-profile-pi

They will end within 30 days and resolve ASAP afterwards.

you should make the next set of polls resolve within 3 days instead of 30 lmao

"Daytrading stocks."

Can't add answers, so putting it here for later.

Added this but with crypto instead.

when you say "poll in the next few months" does it mean you'll run all the polls at once, picking some random time to run them? is the plan to leave the market open while the polls are out?

essentially (assuming you're creating Manifold polls) you'll have 30+ individual polls for each of the things on the market and we're less voting here on personal outlook and more on what we assume poll respondents will feel is true for them, and I'm curious about the approach for circulating them (including how long they'll run?)

Yeah I plan to leave the market open while the polls are running. I'll either run them all at once or in clutches of 5-10 at a time. Not sure how long they'll run yet but at least for a month I'd think.

Half of these are things that like 80% of the population does. Use a social media site for more than 2 hours per week? (not even day! week!) ... watch porn? like ... memes ... on the internet? anime is entirely mainstream nowadays!

I don't expect to win this one but about half the country leans to the right, Trump and Biden are neck and neck, and one's personal politics genuinely isn't really correlated with how good of a person, friend, or romantic partner you are.

Yeah but having a truth social account is a step beyond liking Trump

Simply having a Truth Social account seems significantly less sus than spending hours weekly on it though, many will have dormant accounts that they stopped using

interesting one