Will Kamala Harris be able to flip a state in the 2024 election?
Flipping a state means she wins a state not won by Joe Biden in 2020.
Maine or Nebraska's congressional districts do not count. For example, if Kamala Harris wins Maine's second district, that doesn't resolve this question.
This question closes a day before the election, and resolves as soon as results are known.
Wait @ManifoldPolitics will the sweepstakes version stay open during the election? I'm gonna close the mana version early, not sure if this will happen for sweepstakes version as well. I don't want the description to confuse people if it's going to stay open.
@bagelfan Interesting question! We're still in beta here, let me test moving the date and see what happens. I think it's fine for it to close before the election but I'm curious.
@ManifoldPolitics Okay it looks like when I change the date of the sweeps version it doesn't change the date of the mana version, so I could keep it open election night but I think better to keep it the same. We'll have other markets open election night.
She’s the type of person to tell you how she prepares the food that you prepared for her and say “oh honey we gotta get you some of those spices from [completely ordinary and unexceptional local place] !” then burst out laughing and put her hand on your shoulder, then point to a wine bottle on the table and say “ooh now what do we have here?”
@Joshua The only reason for this is that I bet my portfolio on Rubio becoming Trump’s VP. Unfortunately, I assumed Trump would pick wisely. In hindsight, Rubio is the obvious choice. I was too insightful for my own good.
Kind of odd to me that this market is bullish on Harris's chances, while the individual state markets remain bearish. Placed a No bet here, and a Yes bet on North Carolina on the thesis that an election that sees Florida flip without the same factors flipping North Carolina would be vanishingly rare. States have different electorates, but the probabilities aren't completely independent. Picked up my sweet arbitrage pennies, and now will patiently await the steam roller.
@JohnOta I totally agree. The poll aggregate for North Carolina is well outside of the margin of error.
I find it interesting that this market and the overall election odds are basically the same. Harris doesn’t need to flip any states to win.
And if Harris does flip a state, it seems very likely she would win.
@inactive1234 Yes, it's technically possible, but the probability is ridiculously low. Results in different states are correlated: If she wins a state red enough that it wasn't won in 2020, she has almost certainly won enough states to win the election. I would put the probability of Harris flipping a state but losing the election at probably <5%. But the probability that she wins the election without flipping a state is much higher than that.
@PlasmaBallin not disputing that there are significant correlations between states, but they do change a bit between elections.
@BrunoParga They do, but the only state she could feasibly flip while still losing the election is North Carolina. And even then, it would be very unlikely, both because she probably won't flip NC and because, if she flips NC, she will almost certainly win.
@BrunoParga The next most likely flips are Texas and Florida, but those have so many electoral votes that it would be almost impossible for Harris to lose if she won either one of them.
@PlasmaBallin makes sense, thank you. It is usually unlikely that a candidate of the incumbent party flips a state and loses, but this year it's perhaps more unlikely than usual. (Or not, I haven't checked past results.)
@BrunoParga Hard to say. On the one hand, there used to be a lot more swing states, making it much more likely that you could flip a swing state you lost last time while losing the ones you won last time. On the other hand, elections used to be less close. Would have been pretty hard for Bush to flip a state in '88 and still lose.