Based on credible news reports of a nation that did not previously have a national bitcoin reserve (e.g. El Salvador already having one doesn't count) implementing one in 2025.
If it is almost certain they will (i.e. they've passed laws and orders to do so) this question will resolve YES even if they've not yet physically purchased the bitcoins.
It doesn't have to be called that. If they have it as a reserve asset among other assets it still counts.
It has to be a national reserve. State (US) or region/county-level do not count unless federally ordered.
Update 2025-02-14 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarifications:
Spot BTC ETFs count: Governments using ETFs to hold bitcoin are eligible, as this avoids self-custody technicalities.
Federal Sovereign Wealth Funds count: These are included in the criteria.
Indirect ownership by government-owned entities counts: Holdings by such entities are acceptable if done intentionally as a reserve.
The resolution still hinges on whether the federal government/leadership intentionally establishes a national bitcoin reserve. Incidental or accidental holdings (e.g., bitcoins seized by the FBI) are not considered to fulfill the criteria.
https://www.coindesk.com/markets/2025/02/14/abu-dhabi-discloses-usd437m-stake-in-blackrock-spot-bitcoin-etf
It's not a national reserve (Mubadala is owned by the Government of Abu Dhabi rather than the UAE) so it's outside the scope of this market but it would be good to know for other potential future cases @barbarous:
- Does acquiring spot BTC ETFs count?
- Do federal sovereign wealth funds and indirect ownership via any government-owned entity count?
@adssx Very good questions
Spot BTC ETFs will count, as some governments may wish to avoid the technicalities of self-custody.
Federal sovereign wealth funds will count
Indirect ownership by government-owned entities will count
However the spirit of the question is on whether the federal government/leadership actually wishes to specifically establish a federal fund of bitcoin, and do so for that reason. So if it is only incidental or accidental holding (like bitcoins seized by FBI, not made into a "reserve") then inclined towards no, or N/A if unclear.