Will this market's end date extend if merger process is still ongoing? Or resolve NO if not merged by December?

@dglid extend

Market-implied odds as of 2/20:

• Discover shareholders get 1.0192 share of Capital One = $140.86

• Discover trading at $126.42, last closed at $110.49

• Discover movement today: $15.93

• Spread if it closes today: $140.86 - $110.49 = $30.37

• Implied probability: $15.93 / $30.37 = 52.4%

Edit: It's a couple % higher if you account for interest and time of closing being several months out.

@PlainBG 🤓

@PlainBG update?