How many seasons will Severance run for?
How many seasons will Severance run for?
1
Ṁ20
2035
35%
3
16%
4
16%
5
16%
6
16%
Other

Will be extended until Severance has ended officially.

I may split off answers from Other as more seasons get released (if you're new to this site, don't worry about this, if you bet Other and I split off, say "8 seasons", your shares carry over and the math all makes sense so don't stress out, I promise it's fine).

When the show "ENDS" (there's a grand finale, most things are wrapped up, etc) I will resolve the market. If five years later they tack on another season or something, I don't care for the purposes of this market.

I will not bet in this market in case there are weird gray areas like:

-A finale movie (which I think I will count as a separate season as long as it's released a good deal after the previous season and is substantially long in length).

-A season split into two parts (this will probably count as one season as long as it's designated as like "Season Five - Part One" and "Season Five - Part Two" or something.

-A season that's only like 2 or 3 episodes long (basically like a finale movie, still should count as a season).

-Some sort of confusing multimedia thing.

-The show has multiple split timelines that are released over two years as two seasons but are marketed as "Season Five - Innie Perspective" and "Season Five - Outie Perspective" (idk wtf I'll do here).

-Other confusing nonsense.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.