Resolves YES if any meaningful connection between the two incidents emerges (including being the same person).

I will not bet in this market, so as to remain objective over what consistutes a "connection". Things like correspondence between the two shooters, or common membership in an organization would probably be sufficient. Things like "grew up in the same state" or "are from similar cultural milieus" would probably not be sufficient.

Inspired by Laura Loomer, of all people: https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/2001022435512963334

Resolves as to my best judgment at the end of March. Does not require conviction / confession / >99% confidence that the suspect is accurate, etc.