GPT-5 level model runnable on phones by 2030? | Manifold

GPT-5 level model runnable on phones by 2030?

6

Ṁ137

2030

45%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Saw a hn comment proposing they will https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45561528

"They get more efficient every year and home chips get more capable every year. A GPT-5 level model will be on every phone running locally in 5 years."

#️ Technology

#Technical AI Timelines

#GPT-5 Speculation

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

bought Ṁ10 YES

Gpt 5 can run on a 24 GB GPU according to the internet, and some phones are already close to that. Following the trend of exponential growth we have seen for the past decades, this seems very likely.

opened a Ṁ50 YES at 51% order

If it's not, that probably means things have collapsed and manifold doesn't exist

Related questions

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?

Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?

Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?

GPT-6 release by 2026?

By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?

Will a GPT-4 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?

GPT-4 performance and compute efficiency from a simple architecture before 2026

Related questions

Will a model as great as GPT-5 be available to the public in 2025?

GPT-6 release by 2026?

By January 2026, will a language model with similar performance to GPT-4 be able to run locally on the latest iPhone?

By January 2026, will we have a language model with similar performance to GPT-3.5 (i.e. ChatGPT as of Feb-23) that is small enough to run locally on the highest end iPhone available at the time?

Will a language model that runs locally on a consumer cellphone beat GPT4 by EOY 2026?

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?

In what year will a GPT4-equivalent model be able to run on consumer hardware?

Will a GPT-4 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?

Will a GPT-3 quality model be trained for under $10.000 by 2030?

GPT-4 performance and compute efficiency from a simple architecture before 2026