If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
If Trump wins, will he appoint another SCOTUS Justice before 2027?
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Ṁ29k2027
78%
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This market resolves yes if Donald Trump appoints a Supreme Court Justice between his inauguration and January 1st, 2027. Only a justice who is confirmed by the Senate counts.
If Donald Trump is not re-elected, this market resolves N/A.
May differ from the same Biden conditional market due to different probabilities of also controlling the Senate and strategically timed retirements. See here for the market on if Biden wins:
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Important question! Shaping the court is arguably the most important thing many Presidents do.
I've added this pair of markets to the If Trump Wins dashboard.
I'm also adding 10,000 Mana of subsidy, to incentivize accurate predictions.
reposted
Important question! Shaping the court is arguably the most important thing many Presidents do.
I've added this pair of markets to the If Trump Wins dashboard.
I'm also adding 10,000 Mana of subsidy, to incentivize accurate predictions.
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Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
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