NEXT PERSON TO BE ELECTED CHANCELLOR OF GERMANY?

What if the SPD and Greens formed some alliance when negotiating a coalition with CDU/CSU? Then the next chancellor heavily depends on the question if SPD and Greens combined get more seats than CDU/CSU! See this market for some probabilities.

3mo

German president dissolves parliament to pave way for February 23 snap elections

Created a separate question for the CDU candidate:

This market gets a Manifold-sponsored 5k Mana subsidy because I consider it of public interest.

I really dislike the all-caps title but the two duplicates use the old-style multiple-choice questions.

@marketwise god bless!

@marketwise It does sound more German with all-caps though 🤣

I HAVE NO IDEA

@NicoDelon THINK HARDER

@conradgetty GENAU!

@NicoDelon BEDIENE DIR DEIN VERSTANDNIS!

@conradgetty Bediene dich deines Verstandes! Or deiner DeepL-app. (yours means: "Serve yourself your understanding"

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Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.

As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.

Learn more.

What is this?

What is Manifold?

Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!

Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!

Are our predictions accurate?

Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.

Why should I trade?

Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.

Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.

Get started for free! No credit card required.

What are sweepstakes markets?

There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.

By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.

Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.

As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.

Learn more.

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