Which will happen first?
Which will happen first?
Mini
7
Ṁ166
2042
40%
AGI achieved as determined by USA unemployment exceeding 20%
37%
A 1MW Fusion power plant connected to any electric grid
9%
A room-temperature superconductor is discovered
14%
Non-terrestrial life is widely considered to exist

#Aliens
#AGI
#Semiconductors
#Fusion Energy
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1y
Non-terrestrial life is widely considered to exist
1y

@chris presumably this refers to humanity finding strong evidence of non-terrestrial life? because most people already expect non-terrestrial life to exist in the universe, it being so big and all that.

1y

@Bayesian That's correct, we would both have to have credible evidence, and that evidence is widely believed in the scientific community that this confirms alien life.

Note: I'll be using the date the evidence was revealed to the world, not the date of discovery for the purposes of this market. If someone in a black ops somewhere knows there is aliens, but we don't, I don't count that, even retroactively.

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