Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?
Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?
➕
Plus
19
Ṁ2737
2121
30%
Amy Coney Barrett
22%
Neil Gorsuch
18%
Ketanji Brown Jackson
17%
Brett Kavanaugh
9%
Elena Kagan
9%
John Roberts
5%
Sonia Sotomayor
5%
Samuel Alito
4%
Clarence Thomas

The idea of this market is to predict the order in which justices will leave office.

I will add options as new justices are sworn in.

I will resolve a justice's market with a percentage when they leave office, either by stepping down, being removed or by death.

The n-th person to leave will be resolved with (n-1)%. For instance, the first justice to leave will be resolved with NO, and the second one with 1%. All justices that step down after the 100th will be resolved with YES.

#Supreme Court
#SCOTUS
#US Judiciary
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
7 Comments
15 Holders
153 Trades


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12mo

@NicoDelon buying Gorsuch to 40%?!? You think 38 justices will leave the court before him?

12mo

@mattyb I didn’t read the description. My bad.

12mo

@NicoDelon no sweat. i do feel badly snatching up ignorant trades when these all should be <10%

@mattyb That said I was focusing on the order rather than the price. Given that these are the only names we have, I think Gorsuch and ACB will outlive all of the other ones. But I agree with you that they’re all absurdly overpriced. Brown Jackson was especially overpriced. Just because she’s the latest doesn’t mean she’ll outlive everybody.

bought Ṁ10 Ketanji Brown Jackson NO1y

The n-th person to leave will be resolved with (n-1)%

So the 9th judge Resolves to 9%. These all should be near 5%

1y

@mattyb the 9th judge resolves to 8%, this is because the first one will be resolved to 0%.

opened a Ṁ1 Brett Kavanaugh NO at 26% order1y

@costlySignal thanks. these should all be at 4% then

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