When will the 10-year (US) Treasury yield reach 5 per cent?
5
Ṁ81
2026
16%
June 29 - Sep 30 (2025)
14%
Oct 1 - Dec 31 (2025)
26%
Jan 1 - June 30 (2026)
44%
July 1, 2026 or after, or never

"US Treasury yields, which usually fall in times of market volatility, rose in early April [2025]. While the benchmark 10-year yield has since fallen to about 4.3 per cent, many economists polled believe it could soon hit 5 per cent - a level that would spark concern within the Trump administration"-FT

  • Update 2025-07-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the date the 10-year US Treasury yield first reaches or exceeds 5%.

#Economics
#United States
#Inflation
#US Economy
#Housing markets
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
5 Comments
Sort by:

Based on the market setup, I am guessing you mean "when will the treasury yield first reach or exceed 5%?". Can you please clarify whether my interpretation is correct?

@dfish that's correct

Interesting... you two are more optimistic than the economists surveyed in that FT article. Interested to know your reasoning/intuition

In case it wasn't obvious I'm betting on this market, seeing as the metric is very objective.

sold Ṁ1 Jan 1 - June 30 (2026) YES

If people are interested in this market I'm happy to add liquidity... as soon as I have 1000+ trade-able Mana

Related questions