Manifold Cash Prizes via Sweepstakes Prop Bets
Mini
33
Ṁ9066
Jan 1
99%
Users in at least 1 non-U.S. jurisdiction are not able to earn cash prizes but _are_ able to participate in markets using Mana
27%
There is a way in the Manifold UI for users to propose markets to be designated as Prize Markets
24%
At least 1 market with wording in the title referencing unrelated Manifold functionality (ie “subsidy”, “add your own”, etc) is designated as a Prize Market
20%
There is a way for users to propose their market to be designated as Prize Markets during market creation
19%
A multiple choice market can be designated as eligible for Prize Points only for some answers in the market but not others
4%
At least 1 assassination market is designated as a Prize Market
3%
At least 1 independent multiple choice sports market (all answers) is designated as a Prize Market
3%
Users in at least 1 non-U.S. jurisdiction are able to earn cash prizes
3%
A non-Manifold employee (i.e. a moderator) can designate a market as a Prize Market
2%
Prize Points are redeemable for Manifold merch
2%
Prize Points are redeemable for digital goods/cosmetics on Manifold
1.7%
This market is designated as a Prize Market
1.6%
Prize Points are redeemable for gift card(s)
1.3%
At least 1 death market is designated as a Prize Market
1.3%
Prize Points are redeemable for cash
1.1%
At least 1 numeric market is designated as a Prize Market
Resolved
YES
Donations are no longer be honored at the original 100 mana : 1 USD after May 15th
Resolved
YES
Sweepstakes points are formally named "Prize Points" in the UI
Resolved
YES
Prize Points are awarded from user referrals
Resolved
YES
Mana is no longer able redeemable as a donation to charity

Bottom line up front: I'm very interested in how Manifold will evolve this year toward this "cash prizes via sweepstakes" initiative. Most initial answers come from Manifold's official May 1st announcement about this initiative.

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Maybe I missed it, but I haven't seen any open-ended markets specifically focused on how Manifold will work once it rolls out its cash prizes sweepstakes (i.e. the Pivot):

For ease of resolution, answers will resolve YES if they are true at any point prior to January 1st, 2025, regardless of whether they are definitively related to implementation of the cash prizes via sweepstakes initiative and regardless of whether they are implemented and then undone prior to 2025.

Names in answers referring to a thing, (i.e. "Mana" for play money, "Prize Points" for sweepstakes prizes) should be understood as representative of the underlying thing unless the answer is specifically about naming of the thing. i.e. if there's an answer like "Prize Points are redeemable for cash" and Prize Points are renamed to Win Points or something else, I'll update the answer to say "Win Points are redeemable for cash".

If an answer is unclear, ask in the comments. I reserve the right to reword answers myself to make them clearer.

I will use my judgment to resolve or not resolve subjective answers as I see fit, or N/A them where I feel resolving either YES or NO would be inappropriate or unduly unfair. Also, I want this to be a high-quality market about this important initiative, so I may N/A submissions for any reason.

Comments are encouraged to help notify me that answers can be resolved and to facilitate speedy resolution. I reserve the right to resolve NO any answer for which sufficient evidence is not provided.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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At least 1 independent multiple choice sports market (all answers) is designated as a Prize Market

The "independent multiple choice" format is a bug-ridden disaster, are we really this confident they'll use the payout feature on that type?

At least 1 numeric market is designated as a Prize Market

This feels very high to me. Does anyone know a specific topic/issue that is particularly well-suited for this usage? On first reading, I thought "15%".

@dglid This needs an answer related to having an actual accounting system in place to track "money". Currently the "money" is just "whatever someone invented".

boughtṀ25Prize Points are red... NO

@nikki You stole my bet when I already had the window open! Sneaky!

A non-Manifold employee (i.e. a moderator) can designate a market as a Prize Market
bought Ṁ50 A non-Manifold emplo... NO

@dglid I think this is very unlikely, based on what I have read/observed.

opened a Ṁ1,000 Answer #89f5d7a6bc7c NO at 1.0% order

@dglid resolves no

bought Ṁ221 Answer #8609e7364d08 YES
bought Ṁ223 Answer #7c4b7ddd9497 YES

Resolves yes

@nikki I don’t believe this has actually happened yet so will leave this open until this month’s league closes and the prize points are actually awarded.

Prize Points are awarded from user referrals
bought Ṁ139 Prize Points are awa... YES

Resolves yes

According to standup notes from Friday, @IngaWei will be implementing this 🎉

reposted

Lots of activity on this market today given yesterday’s release of Prize Points

Not yet…

At least 1 market with wording in the title referencing unrelated Manifold functionality (ie “subsidy”, “add your own”, etc) is designated as a Prize Market

None yet…

sold Ṁ48 Answer #96493c936799 YES

I need to check the desktop UI, but I think this resolves NO

Confirmed. $14.99 on iOS, $13.99 on desktop for 10k mana. Resolves NO.

Prize Points are awarded from user referrals
bought Ṁ100 Prize Points are awa... YES

UI says this should be the case, but if someone who gets a referral could confirm this is working, that would be appreciated!

Sweepstakes points are formally named "Prize Points" in the UI
bought Ṁ100 Sweepstakes points a... YES

Resolves yes

Donations are no longer be honored at the original 100 mana : 1 USD after May 15th
bought Ṁ175 Donations are no lon... YES

Resolves yes

Mana is no longer able redeemable as a donation to charity

Resolves yes

bought Ṁ216 Answer #b43e52a7f68f YES

Resolves yes

bought Ṁ50 Answer #852d09513d21 YES
At least 1 market with wording in the title referencing unrelated Manifold functionality (ie “subsidy”, “add your own”, etc) is designated as a Prize Market

Resolves NO if a market is made a Prize Market and then renamed to remove such wording within 24 hours.