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saddest resolution i've ever had to make

Lakers in good position for 3 seed

Odds of going 0-4:

68% (OKC nothing to play for) x 40% (Mavs don't need to win, big lead over Suns for 9/10 seed) x 40% (Rockets locked into 2 seed) x 25% (Blazers eliminated, tanking last game for lottery odds, lost by 39 in 2024 finale, 56 in 2023 finale, 31 in 2022 finale)

Market should be around 98%.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy edit: dumb question - nvm

Lakers have 2 scheduled losses at OKC, then need to win at least one game vs. DAL or HOU, and beat POR for this to resolve YES

@dlin007 lol

@polymathematic :(

@ShaneBo Adding a submarket

after today's loss to the Bulls, the Lakers remain at 44-29 with 9 games to go. they have to find at least 5 wins from their upcoming schedule to win 49 games

@dlin007 considering they have two certain Ws versus the Pels and Blazers, i am beginning to believe for the first time they could fluke 3 wins in the remaining 7

Betting odds say at least 75% chance of 50+

so maybe 85% of 49+

This is probably underpriced rn.

LeBron's only missing maybe 4 more games. So they're expected to win 51 or 52 games on average. Standard deviation around 3 or so.

@ChinmayTheMathGuy they ain't going to win 50+ games

It's -230 betting odds so has to be at least 65%

Then this market's odds should be between 9% and 16% higher (probability of exactly 49-33) than that depending on the standard deviation.

Bron is out, and Fatty has to do it alone for at least 4 games so there's still some hope for doomers?

@dlin007 I sold a bit on the news, but I think it's about accurately priced now. Probably more like a .500 team now especially if they rest Luka on back to backs(likely) which still gives them cushion above 49 wins, but if they can't win two games this week then that cushion is gone.

@ShaneBo lost to the 21-42 Nets so that's a start. Next 2 games vs. Bucks and Nuggets are almost certainly Ls, then we're back in business

@dlin007 0-3...will probably go 2-2 in the next 4 games

wtf is this market doing at 61% lol...Lakers have an insane schedule coming up, including multiple multiple back to backs over 1 week against top 5 seeds...they will fall at least 3 games short

@dlin007 I believe fanduel has their win total at 49.5 right now so about 50% seems right to me

@PaperBoy they have the 5th highest SOS including insane back to backs like this. i would take the under every single day and twice on sundays

@dlin007 i'll make an intermediary prediction - they're not winning more than 4 of the next 10 games. Will be at <=40 wins with 16 games to go, and before their brutal end of season schedule

@dlin007 does this include tonight’s game? How much are you willing to bet on that? I’m down for a gentleman’s wager

@dlin007 assuming tonight’s game counts, I’d bet 1000M at even odds that they win 5 or more of the next 10 games

@PaperBoy i was absolutely sure Lakers would lose both games vs. Clippers/TWolves and i would've taken this bet two days ago but not anymore. I still kinda believe in my hypothesis so if you juice the odds a lil or tweak it to >5/10 i'll be up for it

@dlin007 This seems pretty close to a lock for YES, especially after beating the clippers twice and t-wolves over the last few days. Lakers can win less than half of their remaining games(23 games left and need 11 the rest of the way to reach 49 wins. They have been playing at .800 the last 20 games(seems a large enough sample size) with 10 of those wins against teams with winning records and in the playoff mix(celtics, clippers, mavs, warriors, knicks, twolves). I don't think they will keep up the .800 win record which would have them win 18 of their remaining 23 games, but should still be a .600 team and clear another 13 or 14 wins. 9 of the games they play are basement dwellers. Assume a min 6 wins in that pot(I'd guess they grab 7). Then need to win just 5 of the remaining 14 games(I think they'll grab 7 here too)

@ShaneBo it's a lock...my judgement was clouded by my hater glasses :(

@dlin007 THEY CAN'T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH IT

(as celtics fan still kinda shook that this happened in the first place)

@Ziddletwix hate this sorry ass lucky franchise so much