Will Donald Trump's birthday become a U.S. federal holiday?
Will Donald Trump's birthday become a U.S. federal holiday?
9
Ṁ1722028
19%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
In February 2025, congresswoman Claudia Tenney introduced a bill that would make Donald Trump's birthday (June 14) a US federal holiday. Will this bill (or a bill like it) pass?
Resolves YES if June 14 is celebrated as a federal holiday in the United States in 2025, 2026, 2027, or 2028. Resolves NO if none of those four dates are celebrated as a holiday.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with 
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will Donald Trump be President of the United States on December 30th, 2025?
93% chance
Will A new Holiday be established by the end of April 2025? Trump Adding Holidays?
22% chance
Will June 14, 2025 be a federal holiday?
14% chance
Will Donald Trump establish a new calendar while president?
6% chance
Will Trump declare a "White History Month" in 2025?
3% chance
Will Donald Trump be the President of the USA on December 31, 2025?
95% chance
Will Donald Trump be President of the USA on January 1, 2026?
94% chance
Will Donald Trump's face appear on US currency before December 2028?
10% chance
Will the US Government declare a new federal holiday before 2030?
40% chance
Will Trump be president in 2026 when America celebrates it’s 250th anniversary?
87% chance