Will AI Agents / Assistants significantly disrupt consumer-facing software moats? ๐Ÿค–๐Ÿ–ฅ๐Ÿ’ฅ
Mini
2
แน€20
2030
59%
chance

Currently, consumer facing apps & platforms benefit greatly from user 'switching costs'.

e.g. users are much less likely to use multiple food delivery apps & shop around for the best deal as this involves signing up and switching between a number of different platforms. An AI Agent, theoretically, would have no such issues.

Another basic example: If your AI assistant can view your twitter feed or email inboxes & show you the things youโ€™re most likely to care about (while minimizing the timesink fluff) across all these different feeds that means considerably less ad revenue for email/social platforms (as you're not opening the apps yourself and viewing their ads)

OPEN QUESTIONS:

  • If this becomes an issue, to what extent can apps/platforms fight back via preventing access to the Agent/Assistant?

RESOLTUTION:

  • 'significant disruption' is difficult to define but if one or more major consumer facing apps (Uber, X/Twitter, Instagram, Tinder, Amazon etc.) need to significantly change their business model as a direct result of AI Assistants or Agents it would warrant a Yes resolution

  • I'm open to any suggestions of other more precise ways of resolving as long as they are in the spirit of the market's question

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