Resolve's when the o3 model is usable in the ChatGPT app (mobile or web) for people with a Pro level subscription (which at the time of writing is $200/month).
Update 2025-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): New Resolution Criteria:
The market now resolves to NA based on Sam Altman's tweet.
The o3 model will not be released standalone, so it will not be usable in the ChatGPT app for Pro users.
Update 2025-02-12 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarified Resolution Criteria:
The market now resolves to NA.
This is based on Sam Altman's tweet stating that the o3 model will not be released standalone.
Therefore, the o3 model will not be usable in the ChatGPT app for Pro users.
Sam Altman has tweeted that o3 will not be released standalone, this market resolves to NA. Follow up market for GPT-4.5 Orion here:
https://manifold.markets/gallerdude/when-will-gpt45-orion-be-released?play=true
@gallerdude that tweet doesn't necessarily mean they won't ship o3 at all. It could mean that they will ship it and then roll it into gpt-5, at that point no longer having it as a standalone model
@MalachiteEagle The tweet is very unambiguous to me, especially: "We will no longer ship o3 as a standalone model."
@gallerdude I'm with you that it 70-80% means that they're not going to ship o3, but objectively that sentence is ambiguous. There's two different possible meanings
@MalachiteEagle I don't read it that way. You can downrate me if you want, or make a market if I'm wrong about this or not 😂
@gallerdude you're not understanding the point. I gave you a 1 star rating because you resolved it prematurely, not because I think they're going to release o3.
@gallerdude haha tbf I'm confused about what their original plan was now, reading his latest tweet and back to this one. I get the sense that internally their plans have changed a few times and he just words things a bit slippy by default.
Also sorry for giving you 1 star. Will be more gentle next time.
@MalachiteEagle Like they've "changed plans", but what was the original plan for o3 he was talking about? Very unclear 🤷
@Bayesian seems crazy they were actually planning on telling people "no you can't use the o3 model in the chatgpt interface, it's gpt-5 only that's allowed to decide". That would not have gone down well.
@MalachiteEagle I think if they can integrate it amazingly, and like it can think short when it needs to or think like a minute when it needs to, it’ll be amazing UX.
But if there’s ONE TIME when I need it to think deeply and it thinks for a second and fucks up, it’ll be a catastrophic mistake and people will be very upset.
Sam Altman has tweeted that o3 will not be released standalone, this market resolves to NA. Follow up market for Orion here:
https://manifold.markets/gallerdude/when-will-gpt45-orion-be-released?play=true
@PanAnon Mini: no, preview: no. The only way this (or the sister market) resolve YES without a model named precisely ”o3” being released is if the models are “o3 high” or “o3 low”, or it’s clear “the model previously known as o3 we have now rebranded to x”