Resolves on inauguration day [January 20th, 2025] to whoever gets inaugurated. However, if the winner is called by AP and the challenger(s) concede, that is sufficient to resolve this market.
If none of these six people is the winner of the US presidential election, this market will be cancelled and all trades reversed. It is not possible to add new options (Like Kamala Harris) to this market.
Please refer to this other market for the full, unconditional odds:
🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ33,865 | |
| 2 | Ṁ15,512 | |
| 3 | Ṁ12,948 | |
| 4 | Ṁ8,827 | |
| 5 | Ṁ7,522 |
@squirrelfish Why tag the mods before pinging @getby ?
By the way, @Manifold / @Agh , I'm curious about the decision to have moderators frequently resolve markets before making any effort to get the market creators to resolve. It seems like a risky norm to set, since it's inevitable that at some point there will either be a controversial resolution by a mod or a mod will controversially decline to resolve a market. And it seems a bit contrary to the original spirit of Manifold, in which market creators were expected to be responsible for their markets and Manifold itself did not have to take responsibility for resolution fights. What's the benefit of doing it this way?
@placebo_username The market creator's account has been inactive for several months as far as I can tell.
@benshindel that being said, I have no idea why you'd hold NO shares on Trump in this market unless you think RFK Jr. is going to win or something
I think it should NA regardless of whether it's one of the people listed. Otherwise it amounts to interpreting the question as "conditional that the winner is one of the people listed ...", which doesn't agree with how the question was written or how people would have interpreted their bets (e.g. I bet NO on Biden because the market prob for him felt too high, but his conditional prob wasn't) -- and it also screws up scoring for short-term bets (buy then sell off your position before it resolves).
I agree with Timothy Johnson. We should try not to N/A questions. Especially now with Biden 70% to win the nomination.
Taylor Swift for president:
https://manifold.markets/HarrisonLucas/taylor-swift-runs-for-president-of
Warning for new traders: This market lacks some probable options; notably, Kamala Harris. This means the market probability doesn't correctly correspond to the probabilities of each option winning the election. I recommend that you trade on other equivalent (but not broken) markets instead, such as this one:
if he boosts it again will unlisted prevent it from being displayed? I think this gets views because of boosts
edit: seems like you can't boost unlisted questions! good!
Bet or vote on what to do
https://manifold.markets/KevinBurke/what-should-we-do-with-the-presiden?r=S2V2aW5CdXJrZQ