Will a LLM/elicit be able to do proper causal modeling (identifying papers that didn't control for covariates) in 2024?
Mini
1
Ṁ10Jan 1
41%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Especially the melatonin=>longevity paper Mike Lustgarten tweeted
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Related questions
Related questions
Will LLMs be the best reasoning models on these dates?
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <500 billion parameters?
24% chance
Will the best LLM in 2025 have <1 trillion parameters?
38% chance
Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
40% chance
Will the best LLM in 2027 have <1 trillion parameters?
26% chance
Will the best LLM in 2026 have <1 trillion parameters?
40% chance
LLMs widely used in economics modeling by the end of 2026?
43% chance
Will an LLM do a task that the user hadn't requested in a notable way before 2026?
95% chance
Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?
34% chance
In 2025, will I be able to play Civ against an LLM?
31% chance