Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?
Will one of the major LLMs be capable of continual lifelong learning (learning from inference runs) by EOY 2025?
Mini
5
Ṁ1002026
26%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Sort by:
"Chris" claiming to be leaking an OpenAI secret here, that they will release a continuous learning model later this year.
https://x.com/chatgpt21/status/1897488395665911918
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with 
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
What is this?
What is Manifold?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.Related questions
Will there be major breakthrough in LLM Continual Learning before 2026?
40% chance
LLMs by EOY 2025: Will Retentive Learning Surpass Transformers? (Subsidised 400 M$)
14% chance
Will we get a new LLM paradigm by EOY?
31% chance
Will LLMs become a ubiquitous part of everyday life by June 2026?
89% chance
What will be true of OpenAI's best LLM by EOY 2025?
Will LLMs be able to formally verify non-trivial programs by the end of 2025?
31% chance
Will RL work for LLMs "spill over" to the rest of RL by 2026?
33% chance
Will an LLM improve its own ability along some important metric well beyond the best trained LLMs before 2026?
50% chance
What will be true of Anthropic's best LLM by EOY 2025?
What will Manifolders mostly use LLMs for, by EOY 2025?