Will a video made entirely with AI reach 100 million views on YouTube in 2026?
51
Ṁ5343
2027
87%
chance

Resolves YES if a YouTube video that is:

  • fully generated by AI (script, narration/voice, visuals/animation),

  • without human actors or live-action footage,

  • and clearly disclosed as AI-generated by the creator or media,
    reaches 100 million total views at any time during 2026.

Includes content made with tools like Sora, Pika, Runway, Suno, ElevenLabs, etc.

Resolves NO if no such video hits 100M views before December 31, 2026.

  • Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - A video will NOT qualify if it is edited or assembled by a human, even if all of its individual components (e.g., visuals, script, audio) are AI-generated.

  • Update 2025-08-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): YouTube Shorts are eligible and will count toward the 100 million view requirement.

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@irilonto Intentionally misresolving markets is not permitted. I've re-opened this market. If you don't want to handle resolution later, that's fine, the mod team will do their best when the time comes. If you think I'm mistaken and this market should resolve now, please post your reasoning and/or sources. You're also welcome to discuss it in the discord.

Continued mis-resolution of your markets is likely to result in a ban. (This feedback applies to all markets, not uniquely this one.)

@mods

Wrong resolution and author is a troll.

Where is the video? Send link please

How does this compare with https://manifold.markets/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-2cee92f50e35 ?

Will an AI generated YouTube video reach 100M views before 2026?
Resolved YES. Resolves as YES if an AI generated video has reached 100 million views on YouTube before January 1st 2026 Different number of views: @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-9d632ac5c2f1 @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-4bbb7ca2194b @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-62995958cca7 @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-2cee92f50e35 (this question) @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-20-fafd2966d3a7 @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-50-2980f2a38146 @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-1b-3290f35d888c @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-e5f7b0d6a231 @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-fa081da09f21 Different years: @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-video-reach-10 @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-2cee92f50e35 (this question) @/RemNi/will-an-ai-generated-youtube-video-f31c516403e4 Other questions: @/RemNi/will-we-get-agi-before-2026-3d9bfaa96a61 At least 90% of the frames and audio in the video must be generated by an AI, but an editing process involving a human is permissible within the context of this question. The video must be at least 45 seconds long (YouTube shorts are acceptable provided they fulfil this criteria). Intros and outros are not considered as "part of the video" unless these are also AI-generated. If a video has 5 seconds of intros and outros, then the video must be at least 50 seconds long in order to include 45 seconds of AI-generated content. In order for the video to fulfil the criteria of "AI generated", a neural network (or some similar class of model) must be significantly involved in the production of each frame counted in the 45 seconds of AI-generated content in the video. The "main subject" of the video must be AI generated in order to qualify. For example, a music video with a real singer superimposed on an AI generated background would not qualify. However, an AI generated singer in a virtual scene on which real backup dancers have been superimposed would qualify. For a frame to be considered AI generated, then the majority of the pixels must have been produced by a process that involved a neural network (or similar architecture) to a substantial degree. Silent videos are acceptable, as are videos with a still image, provided this image is AI generated. If the video is not silent then the audio must be broadly generated by an AI. If a video has an audio track that contains both AI generated (synthetic) and recorded audio (e.g a real human's voice), then this media qualifies only if the AI generated audio content is the main "subject" of the audio track. For example, a real human voice singing over synthetic AI-generated background music would not qualify, except in the case that the voice was only heard in a few seconds of the soundtrack. Background music or sound effects that are not AI-generated are permissible provided that 90% of the video contains AI-generated audio on top (e.g. AI-generated voices), and that the AI-generated audio is the "main subject" of the audio track (cannot be simply AI-generated sound effects on top of a music track created by a human).


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@irilonto say what now?

Why does this close in September?

@patrik why do u care

@irilonto because usually this sort of market would close at the end of 2026 (or before if a video reaches 100 million before the end of 2026). closing 16 months before a possible resolution is odd. we traders want to know why

Do YouTube shorts count?

@Vesperstelo of course bro

@irilonto Not sure why you needed the “of course” here. YouTube classifies their media into “Videos” and “Shorts”, and your market asks about videos, so this is a very reasonable question

@JimHays shut the fuck up

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@JimHays cut out your organs пж, жертва аборта 😜😜😜😜😜

@irilonto Please engage with other users and the site kindly and respectfully.

@EvanDaniel sorry - but that's all? 👀

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