Will Elon Musk have an active ๐• profile on January 1, 2030?
Will Elon Musk have an active ๐• profile on January 1, 2030?
Mini
9
แน€281
2030
73%
chance

This will resolve to YES,
if on Jan 1, 2030

Elon Musk has an active profile on X.com
//////////////////

if Elon dies
if X.com substantially rebrands
if Elon is banned from X
etc - will resolve to NO.

Get แน€1,000 play money


Sort by:
predicts YES 1y

What do you mean โ€œif x .com substantially

rebrands

predicts NO 1y

@GabeGarboden ie. if X.com does some pivot and changes it's branding (to, let's say "Y") and is very different platform, people don't refer to it as X anymore, but Elon's profile is still active there

1y

No way he maintains an active account if he's pushed out and unless things change radically he will be

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEightโ€™s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (๐•Š) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.