Will Manifold have a USD cash prize market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
31
Ṁ18kresolved Sep 18
Resolved
YES1D
1W
1M
ALL
Resolves YES if Manifold has at least one market with real money (USD) prizes on the winner of the 2024 US presidential election, before November 5, 2024 (Election Day), Eastern Time. Otherwise NO.
The definition of "USD cash prize market" is the same as https://manifold.markets/jack/will-manifold-launch-real-money-pri
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
🏅 Top traders
# | Name | Total profit |
---|---|---|
1 | Ṁ699 | |
2 | Ṁ631 | |
3 | Ṁ408 | |
4 | Ṁ269 | |
5 | Ṁ116 |
Sort by:
Why is this market higher than the following market:
/SteveSokolowski/will-manifold-enable-realmoney-bett
Since the judge's ruling was specifically directed at Congressional betting, this market about Presidential betting should have a ceiling at the Congressional market.
@SteveSokolowski imo they are just badly priced. Not much liquidity, tons of adverse selection from insider trading, etc
Related questions
Related questions
Will Kalshi have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
50% chance
Will Manifold have $100k in mana sales before the election following our sweepstakes launch?
69% chance
Will Manifold have a real-money market on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election?
6% chance
Will Manifold be more accurate than Polymarket in forecasting the 2024 election?
43% chance
Who will make at least one bet on Manifold during 2024?
Will Manifold enable real-money betting on Congressional races?
94% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold beat 538 on accuracy?
54% chance
In the 2024 US election, will Manifold be within the top 25% accuracy among all large prediction markets?
50% chance
Will the largest manifold market covering the US presidential election correctly predict the outcome of the election?
67% chance
Will Manifold or FiveThirtyEight be more confident about the actual winner of the 2024 US presidential election?