Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
Will the next book of A Song of Ice and Fire by George R. R. Martin be released by 2030?
βž•
Plus
49
αΉ€2394
2031
66%
chance

Resolves YES if the sixth novel (current title: "The Winds of Winter") in the series A Song Of Ice And Fire is released by end of 2030, and is authored by George R. R. Martin.

#Books
#A Song of Ice and Fire
Get αΉ€1,000 play money
4 Comments
45 Holders
323 Trades


Sort by:
10mo

@jack Close date is Dec 31st 2030, so does this count a release in 2030? Perhaps could be better to title it "before 2031" if so?

9mo

Updated! Not sure how I made that mistake, embarrassing lol

1y

Does GRRM have to be the sole author/alive when the book is formally announced? Or does a β€œPale King” situation a la DFW count as a YES here for resolution purposes?

bought αΉ€100 NO1y

Just saw this question. Going by the text of the question, I think he doesn't have to be alive, but does have to be the sole author. (Though if I were writing a new question I would probably require him to be alive.)

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (π•Š) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.

Related questions