Is at least one of the stories about an innocent person deported by the US to prison in El Salvador substantially true?
20
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Dec 31
97%
chance

Applies to stories released on or before Mar 29 2025. The central case where this resolve NO is if all of them were TdA members. Central case where it resolves YES is if at least one of the claims was just true. In between is fuzzy, and I'll pick an uninvolved moderator to resolve in that case, or if people disagree on the resolution.

If every one of them for instance shoplifted once, and the administration uses that to claim they're criminals, that wouldn't be enough to make the story substantially false.

If they were all active members of a transnational criminal organization other than TdA, or past members of one, that would be enough to make a story about how an innocent asylum seeker was deported false.

Criteria may be reasonably revised if people point out problems. Close date may be extended for good reason, but by default will resolve EOY

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60 Minutes found no criminal record for 75% of the Venezuelan migrants the U.S. sent to a mega-prison in El Salvador. cbsn.ws/4lC4Vp5

@JaimeSantaCruz

@60minutes.bsky.social finds no evidence of criminal records in US or any other country for 75% of Venezuelans kidnapped and rendered to El Salvador. Of the rest, 22% had non-violent arrests for things like traffic violations.

https://bsky.app/profile/clarajeffery.bsky.social/post/3lm6wepunvk2g