Resolution Details: This question resolves YES if the United States federal government officially implements new tariffs targeting semiconductors imported from Taiwan, with an effective date on or before December 31, 2025.
Resolution Criteria:
The tariffs must be formally announced through official US government channels (e.g., Federal Register, US Trade Representative, Department of Commerce)
The measures must explicitly include semiconductors imported from Taiwan
The implementation date must be set for no later than December 31, 2025
Temporary suspensions of existing trade agreements do not count as new tariffs
The tariffs must be broad measures affecting the semiconductor industry, not targeted actions against specific companies (e.g., TSMC)
Resolves YES if a general tariff on Taiwanese imports is applied and it includes semiconductors.
Resolves NO if:
No such tariffs are announced by December 31, 2025
Announced tariffs are scheduled to take effect after December 31, 2025
Proposed tariffs are withdrawn before implementation
Measures are limited to non-tariff trade barriers
Actions only affect other categories of goods from Taiwan
Tariffs are announced but legally challenged and blocked from implementation
It sounds to me like a 10% tariff might go into place on the 5th, even though there's a carveout for the higher reciprocal rate on the rest of Taiwain.
FYI, there appears to be a carveout for semiconductors at the moment
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/
"Some goods will not be subject to the Reciprocal Tariff. These include: (1) articles subject to 50 USC 1702(b); (2) steel/aluminum articles and autos/auto parts already subject to Section 232 tariffs; (3) copper, pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, and lumber articles; (4) all articles that may become subject to future Section 232 tariffs; (5) bullion; and (6) energy and other certain minerals that are not available in the United States."
@jgyou (this is why I immediately dumped YES at 70% after buying it up to 70%. Gotta read the fine print.)
@jgyou wait WHAT? That goes completely against the spirit of the market. You have EXPLICITLY in the resolution critera:
-"The measures must explicitly include semiconductors imported from Taiwan"
A 10% tariff across all Taiwanese goods does NOT do this.
@bens Yeah, I agree with this โฆ Wish I'd made my own version of this market instead of providing 10k liquidity for this one
@jgyou very clear.
Ironically if Tariff Man introduced semiconductor tariffs that would potentially lower the tariff because specific tariffs currently replace the April 2nd trade deficit tariffs.
@bens @JonasVollmer
The clarification was made 30 days ago, so I can't really feel bad here.
And I disagree. The clarification captures the spirit of the market, which is getting at the fundamental question of whether USA-based companies will suffer from tariffs on semiconductors coming out of Taiwan.
@jgyou I mean, I guess I thought the spirit of the market was whether there would be specific tariffs on semiconductors, not across the board tariffs on all goods. As... the resolution criteria laid out quite explicitly above. But I guess I couldn't read your mind.
@bens If this resolves Yes because Taiwan is implicitly included in the all-country tarriff, while the explicit tarriff on Taiwan explicitly excludes semiconductors then... well, it'll be a letdown for me.
I entered this market when TSMC invested 100bn in the US because I took it as their bribe to get out of tarriffs, and it's looking like I was right about that. But it seems I was wrong to assume there wasn't resolution criteria further down the list which made the second entry inapplicable ๐
The sweepstakes market for this question has been resolved to partial as we are shutting down sweepstakes. Please read the full announcement here. The mana market will continue as usual.
Only markets closing before March 3rd will be left open for trading and will be resolved as usual.
Users will be able to cashout or donate their entire sweepcash balance, regardless of whether it has been won in a sweepstakes or not, by March 28th (for amounts above our minimum threshold of $25).
@JonasVollmer Added fine prints since that's quite a bit of liquidity, and there are now 15 traders. Initially fired off the market quickly following the news.
There is an "AND" in the question that's been traded on so far, which, if read in the literal sense, would require both sectors to be targeted. Happy to change to an "OR" if that's more aligned with the question people wish they were predicting.
@jgyou I'd be especially interested in the version of the question that only includes semiconductors. As a NO holder who would be disadvantaged by this change, I would be happy for you to make that edit
@JonasVollmer OK -- editing since you are the biggest liquidity provider.
I'll reimburse anyone who exits their position due to the edits in the next 24 hours; just dm me!
Since the market technically got less specific, NO holders could be hurt a bit.
This is why the market crashed. It's because of insider trading, people with advance knowledge of the Taiwan tariffs took out large short positions. Investors and the media saw this and thought deepseek was the cause. Then that became the narrative.