Which of the following will occur before Manifold's Daily Streak Ironman concludes?
13
Ṁ26162026
1D
1W
1M
ALL
91%
Jimmy Carter passes away
83%
GPT-next is released (OpenAI's next frontier model)
54%
AGI is achieved (resolves according to Manifold's 'AGI when?' market)
50%
Manifold announce that they are going to go defunct
18%
China invades Taiwan
8%
A room temperature superconductor is discovered (and confirmed)
7%
@snazzlePop sustains a major injury or dies while climbing a mountain
The Daily Streak Ironman can be found here:
https://manifold.markets/AmmonLam/which-candidate-would-last-the-long?r=amlt
Participants must trade at least once every 36 hours or they are eliminated from the competition. There were 12 to begin with, now after almost half a year only 3 remain.
Get Ṁ1,000 play money
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AGI is achieved (resolves according to Manifold's 'AGI when?' market)
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