Will China have the best open LLM at EOY?

145

Ṁ39k

Dec 31

63%

chance

ALL

based on https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard

Resolves YES if the open model with the highest Elo at EOY is from a Chinese lab.

Update 2025-03-16 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolution Clarification:
- Method: The outcome will be determined using lmarena's designation.
- Definition: An LLM is considered open if it is listed as something other than 'proprietary'.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

19 Comments

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boughtṀ300NO

@HenriThunberg Wanna bet more?

@Bayesian I'll consider it. Would you put a limit order at 59%?

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 59% order

@HenriThunberg Done

bought Ṁ2,000 NO

@Bayesian cool, I did some and might return to it after more reasoning.

@HenriThunberg I’ll drop the limit tho and ping me again if u wanna buy more

boughtṀ200NO

@MaxA Wanna bet more?

bought Ṁ350 YES

I bet yes because outside of China, no one really has an incentive to open source a frontier model. Chinese labs are open sourcing their near-frontier models as they compete for state support.

Meta is the only Western company with frontier level model capabilities and a strong incentive to open source. And, it seems unlikely that they will just happen to release Llama 5 in December and it will also be the best model.

@jim Is "open weights" is sufficient to count for this?

@DanHomerick the plan is just to use lmarena's designation. If it's listed as something other than "proprietary" will probably count.

Accord to NYT? Never. Highest Eli score would b due to “copying”, “trickery”, “undisclosed info in the 1st page of disclosure doc”, “conspiracy”…besides “we don’t use Elo anymore”.

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