AI voice synthesis will be used to fabricate dirt on a political opponent in the 2024 US presidential election
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17
Ṁ1640
resolved Jun 30
Resolved
NO

AI voice synthesis is getting good https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=-9Ado8D3A-w&feature=youtu.be


Will someone use this technology to create a fake recording of a politician saying something inflammatory, where the opposing party then points to this audio as supposed evidence of wrongdoing?

For this market to resolve Yes, one party (or some extension of the party, such as a politically-aligned news organization) must attempt to use the fabricated audio to damage the opponent's political prospects. It is not sufficient for the audio to simply exist. For example the USPresidentsPlay youtube series would not count because no one is treating the audio as credible.

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@jonsimon Resolve please?

@mods Can this be resolved?

@JimHays @traders I don't think this happened. I'm inclined to resolve No by default. Does anyone have any sources for instances that might count for a Yes resolution?

@EvanDaniel Here is voice synthesis in the 2024 election, but not clearly done by a candidate against an opponent, and not used to fabricate dirt

https://apnews.com/article/new-hampshire-primary-biden-ai-deepfake-robocall-f3469ceb6dd613079092287994663db5#

@JimHays I mostly agree, though that article is from May 31 2024.

@EvanDaniel Oh yeah, fair

Seems like the robocall one actually was against a political opponent, but was not used to fabricate dirt

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna140402

If there was another case it’d probably be in this Wikipedia article

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Audio_deepfake

predicted NO

Related:

Does “political opponent” mean “someone you don’t like politically” or “someone you are running against”? Very likely lay people will try to do this, but doubtful that the official Dem or Rep campaign will

predicted NO

@JimHays It doesn't have to be directly manufactured by the Democratic/Republican party, but it does have to be picked up by them and used to try to sully the opponent. It can't just be something off on the side that some lay person makes that withers away in isolation on some corner of the internet without anyone paying attention to it.

What is the catch?

@FranklinBaldo What do you mean? The technology is getting good enough that I think the changes are realistic that one party tries to manufacture a pussygate-esque scandal tape to sink their opponent

predicted NO

@jonsimon *chances

predicted YES

@jonsimon you clarify my concerns iin the other thread