Will a human have offspring with a non-human animal before the end of 2024?
5%
chance

Normally this doesn't work, but you could imagine it would be possibl through some clever biohacking or whatever. For the market to resolve YES the offspring needs to clearly have a mix of the DNA of a specific human and a specific non-human animal.

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Does something like the HeLa cell line count as human for the purposes of this question?

Does a Neanderthal count as a human?

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan no, but maybe it should? I'd be open to either side.

predicts YES

@levifinkelstein Well, Neanderthals have had offspring with humans, so this means that a human has in fact had offspring with a nonhuman animal.

predicts YES

@JosephNoonan I should clarify it has to have taken place after the creation of the market

@levifinkelstein OK, fair enough

@JosephNoonan for the purposes of this question I'd count all subspecies of Homo sapiens as "human" (to avoid any nitpicking about the Neanderthal and Denisovan admixtures in modern humans). Hech, you can probably as well count the whole genus Homo as "human" just to be safe.

predicts NO

@ArmandodiMatteo I would generally count all members of the homo genus as human, but I am fine with counting just homo sapiens as well. It shouldn't matter to the resolution since the creator has already clarified that it has to be after market creation, and homo sapiens are the only extant species of the homo genus.