Will we get very strong evidence that the universe is Turing computable by 2030?
Will we get very strong evidence that the universe is Turing computable by 2030?
18%
chance

Strong evidence means something that would update the probability beyond 99%.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money


Sort by:
1y

This seems very difficult. If we find the theory of everything and it's computable (I guess by a stochastic Turing machine), would that count?

1y

Many physical systems have already been proven to be Turing complete, would that qualify?

@TrippLyons I don't see why it would.

predicts YES 1y

@levifinkelstein What would qualify in that case?

@TrippLyons I can't give all the things that would qualify since figuring that out is part of the problem. But if I were to imagine, perhaps if we have a complete theory of physics that is Turing computable. Or maybe we just need a theory that's almost complete?

predicts YES 1y

@levifinkelstein Are you suggesting that the fact that Newtonian physics is Turing complete is irrelevant to this question, and we need a perfect model for this question to resolve to YES?

@TrippLyons "Are you suggesting that the fact that Newtonian physics is Turing complete is irrelevant to this question" No, but they universe seems quite a bit more strange than Newtonian mechanics, so I don't think that suffices to increase the probability that much.

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is a social prediction market with real-time odds on wide ranging news such as politics, tech, sports and more!
Participate for free in sweepstakes markets to win sweepcash which can be withdrawn for real money!
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like trading still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why should I trade?
Trading contributes to accurate answers of important, real-world questions and helps you stay more accountable as you make predictions.
Trade with S Sweepcash (𝕊) for a chance to win withdrawable cash prizes.
Get started for free! No credit card required.
What are sweepstakes markets?
There are two types of markets on Manifold: play money and sweepstakes.
By default all markets are play money and use mana. These markets allow you to win more mana but do not award any prizes which can be cashed out.
Selected markets will have a sweepstakes toggle. These require sweepcash to participate and allow winners to withdraw any sweepcash won to real money.
As play money and sweepstakes markets are independent of each other, they may have different odds even though they share the same question and comments.
Learn more.