Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Kemi Badenoch? | Manifold

Will the next leader of the Conservative Party be Kemi Badenoch?

30

Ṁ5674

2030

40%

chance

1D

1W

1M

ALL

Resolves to YES if the next leader of the UK Conservative Party after Rishi Sunak is Kemi Badenoch. Interim leaders do not count. If the party changes its name, it still counts; if the party dissolves or ceases to exist, this will resolve N/A. I will extend the close date if necessary.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

Sort by:

https://manifold.markets/NiallWeaver/will-kemi-badenoch-be-demoted-from?r=TmlhbGxXZWF2ZXI

Will Kemi Badenoch be demoted from Cabinet before a change or vacancy for Prime Minister or a dissolution of Parliament.

46% chance. Demotion is defined as loss of her seat at the Cabinet without acquiring immediately another Cabinet position. All Cabinet positions are treated equal. Merely attending Cabinet is not the equivalent of membership of Cabinet. Temporary leave for maternity or illness is ignored: if the mar…

Related questions

Who will be the next Conservative Party Leader?

Will the next leader of the Conservative Party become Prime Minister of the UK?

Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?

Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Conservative party?

Who will be the next Conservative Prime Minister?

What will be true of the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party?

Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party? [Free Response]

Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?

If this person is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Conservative?

Who will be the next leader of the UK Labour Party?

Related questions

Who will be the next Conservative Party Leader?

What will be true of the next permanent leader of the UK Conservative Party?

Will the next leader of the Conservative Party become Prime Minister of the UK?

Who will be the next leader of the Conservative Party? [Free Response]

Will the next elected leader of the Conservative Party be their leader by the time the next general election is held?

Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Labour party?

Will the next female Prime Minister of the UK be from the Conservative party?

If this person is the leader of the Conservative Party going into the next UK election, will the PM be Conservative?

Who will be the next Conservative Prime Minister?

Who will be the next leader of the UK Labour Party?