🏅 Top traders

yooooooo only an 800 mana loss! This exceeds my expectations

@mattyb Resolve please.

Oi @mattyb we're done here

@mods creator pinged 8 days ago last active 7 months ago, resolve please.

@ChristopherRandles done. lmk if I made any mistakes

Title doesn't match the fine print... nice, thanks yo 🥳

gosh darned caveats

@Qoiuoiuoiu welp there goes a buncha mana

@Qoiuoiuoiu ah was that you with Yankees at 99%? 🙇 sorry it's like this. You'll still probably win a little mana though

@JTBooth Indeed, misread the description. Ya know, it is what it is though, onto the next market with that tumbles energy fr

Hey, rounding off the 99% and 1% teams, this market is expecting 8.13 teams to make the LDS! that's good work

👀 Reds

@JTBooth if they don't beat the Dodgers the 👀 mean nothing

Maybe edit the title to "Which MLB teams will make the 2025 LDS?" I think a lot of traders are not reading the description and incorrectly assuming wildcard teams automatically resolve YES, which is why the market is overvalued as a whole

Do the Athletics count as Oakland A's for the purposes of this market?

@Tripping Or do they count as "team that does not exist"?

@Tripping the "Oakland As [even if they don't play in Oakland]"? I think that's probably the athletics yes

This market was way too rich in "Yes" - I just took a no position on ~every team and the expected value is still 10 teams making the playoffs.

I turned https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-power-rankings-inaugural-2025-edition these power rankings into scores from 2 to 8, averaging 5 - white sox at 2, dodgers at 8. I got the schedule from this guy https://www.reddit.com/r/mlb/comments/1e6mrv0/2025_mlb_schedule_spreadsheet/. To simulate a game, I pick randomly from 0 to (team1 + team2), and if the number is < team1, team 1 wins. Did the same for the wild card 5-game series. In case my power rankings were wrong, I also added or subtracted 1 at random, 25% +1 25% -1, before each season. Ran 1000 samples of this to get the probabilities. Partial results:
Dodgers 84%
Yankees 74%
Braves 61%
Phillies 59%
Mets 58%
Astros 57%
Orioles 49%
Brewers 41%

Other takeaways, that the schedule simulation adds to the power ranking:
- The AL west is full of middle-of-the-road teams, the Astros (power level 6) drop from 67% to 57% when I added power ranking randomness, because the Rangers and Mariners are both power level 5.
- The Yankees are punching way above their (power level 7) weight class with 74%. The other three teams on that level are the Braves, Mets and Phillies - and they're all in the same division, which is kind of crazy. Thanks, wild card!

Who tops our inaugural 2025 Power Rankings?

Last season was the year that Shohei Ohtani and Aaron Judge blew our minds (again), the year Paul Skenes made his debut and instantly became unforgettable, and the year the Dodgers won their eighth World Series. But that’s all in the rearview mirror. It’s all about 2025 now.

@creator please change the description here to reflect that teams need to make it to the division series. The wild card round is officially part of the postseason.

@DanielTilkin added DS to the title