GPT-5's 50% time horizon, per METR

GPT-5: 120+ on AMC

GPT-5: >175 LSAT

Will GPT-5 score higher than 1350 on the Lmsys Arena Leaderboard

Will GPT-5 ace exams?

GPT-5: >178 LSAT

GPT-5: 100+ on AMC

GPT-5: 140+ on AMC

Will Claude 4 achieve over 95% on the MMLU-Pro benchmark by end of 2025?

MMLU 99% #3: Will SOTA for MMLU (average) pass 99% by the start of 2026?