MANIFOLD
BrowseUS ElectionNewsAbout
Will AGI be created before the beginning of 2050? (Definition: Autonomous system surpassing majority of economic tasks)
Mini
6
Ṁ119
2050
84%
chance
1D
1W
1M
ALL

From Wikipedia, "Alternatively, AGI has been defined as an autonomous system that surpasses human capabilities in the majority of economically valuable tasks."

I consider this to be a relatable and important metric, as it would require significant redesigns to our current financial models.

Get Ṁ1,000 play money
Comments

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2027?
-6% 1d10% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
10% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
67% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
69% chance
Will we get AGI before 2040?
82% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
+5% 1d56% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
4% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2045?
85% chance

Related questions

Will we get AGI before 2027?
10% chance
Will we get AGI before 2028?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2027?
10% chance
Will we get AGI before 2030?
56% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
67% chance
Will we get AGI before 2026?
4% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
69% chance
Will we reach "weak AGI" by the end of 2025?
24% chance
Will we get AGI before 2040?
82% chance
Will we get AGI before 2045?
85% chance
BrowseElectionNewsAbout