🗳️Post-election campaign dirt ☕️ prop bets (ADD RESPONSES)
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Plus
28
Ṁ3166
Jan 1
70%
A Harris loss is blamed on the sexism of specifically young American men
70%
The Harris campaign had major internal battles over how much to distance her from Biden
46%
Harris picked Walz over Shapiro to avoid antagonizing the anti-Zionist wing of the Democratic Party
40%
Harris was deeply personally unpleasant to her staff
31%
Harris’s campaign squandered funds on large concerts and couldn’t pay for a ground game

After an election, stories often break about why and how the campaigns made the choices they did. This is particularly common for the losing campaign. (Think of the stories about Clinton’s strategy in Wisconsin and Michigan in 2016.)

Bets here resolve YES if a story confirming them breaks by the end of 2024. Stories must be reported by a reliable media outlet or posted on social media by a person actually involved — no unsourced anonymous Twitter posts.

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Harris’s campaign squandered funds on large concerts and couldn’t pay for a ground game
Harris was deeply personally unpleasant to her staff

@njmkw imho she is not a type A personality and did not run a type A campaign and this is the kind of thing you see with Type A people.

A Harris loss is blamed on the sexism of specifically young American men

@njmkw I think this needs to be qualified in terms of “how officially” this position needs to be or how high up it should be sourced, because we’re already seeing it.

@mqudsi if you find me, someone from campaign saying “we did a great job but it turns out young men are just too sexist” I’ll resolve it yes

A Trump loss is blamed on Vance’s personal unpopularity
bought Ṁ100 A Trump loss is blam... NO

@njmkw arbitration opportunity to bring this down below P(Trump loses) given that it resolves NO if Trump wins

Will the options referencing a specific candidate losing resolve NA if they don’t lose?

@Arky They’ll resolve no.

@njmkw Thanks, also for the X loss is blamed on Y ones, does someone from the campaign have to do the blaming?

@Arky Yes, the story needs to be “X campaign person says X lost because Y” not just some op-ed making that argument.