A bizarre amalgam is some apparently right and some apparently left positions resolves “no.” I will not participate to maintain objectivity. Resolves “no” if we have no clear answer within a month.
If his politics seem to have shifted, I will go with what appears to have been the most recent (last few years) version.
@traders as far as I can tell, people are placing their trades based on their differing interpretations of the material that’s been released rather than on their predictions about future material that may be released. (Not that this is a clean dichotomy of course.) I have yet to see anything that I would qualify as a smoking gun (big “I love Karl Marx and John Rawls” sign? full-sleeve tattoo of William F. Buckley dated last week?). I will resolve this market either when I see such a smoking gun or based on the preponderance of the evidence on the close date. In the meantime, what are best practices for inviting people to make their case about the interpretation of the material we currently have?
@njmkw "“I love Karl Marx and John Rawls” sign" - The question is 'left of center' not 'far left'.
The Biden/Harris sticker should be enough on its own by any reasonable metric, the contents of the book makes this an absolute no-brainer barring any mental gymnastics or fresh evidence to the contrary...
@njmkw We have a very different feeling either about Rawls or where the center is then...
How would you describe CNN/NYT/Politico?
@PaulBenjaminPhotographer Ostensibly centrist, actually left of center. (The Marx/Rawls thing was a joke.)
@njmkw Only reason this market is 50/50 is because creator’s resolution criteria is nonsense and not tied to the actual question.
@TeddyWeverka In 2016...
'has since withdrawn his support for the president' - question is about his current position.
@TeddyWeverka He moved away from Trump leftward rather than going far right as far as I can tell. We’re analyzing the politics of a mentally ill brain either way which leads to some idiosyncrasies but he could have moved full right-wing Q-anon or Nazi as he went down whatever pipeline clicked with his increasingly erratic thoughts. Instead he seems to have moved away from Trump towards supporting the center-left Dems. That's definitely shift to broadly left of center.
People don't like that because it is not politically expedient but it turns out the actions and ideas of clearly schizo men are not a great way to analyze and judge politics generally.
@AltPutin From Google Translate:
A staunch supporter of Ukraine and a staunch hater of Russia, this man is very liberal.
@JeffBerman He turned against Trump once Trump corruptly traded against American’s national security interests in exchange for personal political favours, and you think this makes him a lefty? 🤨