This market resolves YES if there is a default on any US federal debt during the current four-year presidential term (before inauguration day 2029).
This includes "technical default"; that is, "default" will be construed very broadly: Any failure of more than a day to make any scheduled payment on any debt instrument previously broadly believed to be valid.
The resolution to this is unlikely to be subtle, but just in case:
Traditional CDS trigger events like moratorium, repudiation, or acceleration resolve YES.
Declaring debt previously considered valid (valued near the market rate) to be invalid, or to make foreign-held debt non-redeemable, would resolve YES.
The 1979 "mini-default" (payments delayed several weeks due to technology issues) would resolve YES.
Ordinary failures to make non-debt payments such as salaries, contractor invoices, or entitlements benefits would NOT resolve the question.
The innumerable possible edge cases like the debt in the social security trust fund will resolve based on the response of credit agencies and CDS.
Further refinement of these terms welcome; comment below.
I think the default sequence of events now (if nobody stands up to the government) is:
The stock market loses 50-75% of its value, causing tax revenue from capital gains to plunge
Massive layoffs and the jobs never return due to AI, causing tax revenues from wages to plunge
Products like cell phones, which many people use all day, triple in price or become unaffordable, causing sales tax revenue to plunge
Bank runs, with inflation needed to fill FDIC insurance fund
Civil unrest
So tax revenue will plunge and lead to a default in the current scenario, as nobody is willing to lend to the government.
Related, shorter-term market with some arb possible:
https://manifold.markets/Jakeqhsf/will-the-united-states-default-on-i-CONCLqqP6q
Related public statements market:
https://manifold.markets/Xtr235x/will-trump-tout-positively-promote
Opinions of the Congressional Research Service:
https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R44704
To explain my own valuation estimate: I think the base rate is a bit over 1 % per year (the War of 1812 fiascos and the 1979 event would have been YES, and the withdrawal of gold convertibility would have seemed like a very maybe case at the time), so 4% is a reasonable starting point. I think this administration is about twice as likely as base rate to default, either due to pique, incompetence, or a Very Clever Scheme of some sort. Then I arbitrarily added on one more point for Stein's Law.