Will Eliezer Yudkowsky be charged with a federal crime before the end of 2028?
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2029
4%
chance

Only must be charged with a federal crime. Resultant guilt or innocence is irrelevant. Charges must be laid on or after July 28, 2023. In effect, unknown charges that "come to light" after this date but were laid before this date do not count. Only new federal charges on or after July 28, 2023 and before or on December 31, 2028 are valid.

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Why federal? (“Federal” isn’t a synonym of “serious”.)

What was the crime?

Dudes, deontological side constraints

Federal charges levied by the Galactic Federation settle as YES. As do federal charges by any national government. Charges laid in absentia if Yudkowsky is extradited to/granted asylum by any state entity, including GF, (a la Assange and Ecuador) settle as YES.

How does this resolve if the Galactic Federation requesting the extradition before the formal charges? 🛸

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