What will OpenAI do in 2025?

Ṁ13k

Dec 31

ALL

98.3%

Reach a 500 billion dollar valuation

82%

Reach a 750 billion dollar valuation

69%

Be beaten by Google in text generation on the "Humanity's last exam" leaderboard

60%

Release another developer model like GPT4.1

33%

Give equity to Sam Altman

17%

Release an IDE (Windsurf or other)

16%

Create a new different state of the art learning algorithm

Build AGI internally

Convert into for-profit

Resolved

YES

Release GPT-5

Resolved

YES

Implement better memory across all chats

Resolved

YES

Announce or release a social media platform

Resolved

YES

Release a significant update to Sora

Resolved

YES

Make another aquisition/merger other than Windsurf and io for >1 billion USD

Update 2025-05-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A key condition for actions by OpenAI relevant to this market is:
- OpenAI must be recognized as inventing it (e.g., the product, discovery, or concept).

Get Ṁ1,000 play money

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For any new cool answers created (different from the ones listed, about something interesting and reasonably likely) of OpenAI I'll personally send 300 mana to the creator!

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Release another developer model like GPT4.1

bought Ṁ20 Release another deve... YES

@Fynn 5-codex?

bought Ṁ300 Make another aquisit... YES

@Fynn https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/02/openai-buys-statsig-for-1point1-billion-hires-ceo-as-applications-exec.html resolves YES @patrik

OpenAI acquires Statsig for $1.1 billion, brings on CEO as applications executive

Statsig will continue to operate independently and serve customers out of its Seattle office, OpenAI said.

Create a new different state of the art learning algorithm

@patrik Must be them who are recognized as inventing it.

Release a significant update to Sora

@Fynn What would qualify for this? Could you make it more precise?

@patrik Any of therese would qualify:

~same quality as Sora but at least 6 times cheaper,

much better quality and coherence (like hitting 1175 Elo on this leaderboard),

generating videos of 4 minutes or longer at the ~same quality as Sora

Would not qualitfy: just adding image to video / video to video on the ~same model, increased rate limits

Be beaten by Google in text generation on the "Humanity's last exam" leaderboard

@MarkusFlicke Isn't that what Sora does?

@patrik Damn you're right. I wasn't caught up on that.

@MarkusFlicke Since no-one has bet yet I have renamed to something more sensible

Announce or release a social media platform

bought Ṁ10 Announce or release ... NO

@Fynn That's cool didn't know they're planning that https://www.theverge.com/openai/648130/openai-social-network-x-competitor

For any new cool answers created (different from the ones listed, about something interesting and reasonably likely) of OpenAI I'll personally send 300 mana to the creator!

@patrik I'll send it to the 10 most interesting.

@patrik 2/10 already sent out

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